Top Searches in 2006 - Reading the Tea Leaves

What are people searching for online? A quick survey of the top 10 searches in 2006 as reported by MediaPost of the three major search engines reveals the following:

Yahoo:

1. Britney Spears
2. WWE
3. Shakira
4. Jessica Simpson
5. Paris Hilton
6. American Idol
7. Beyonce Knowles
8. Chris Brown
9. Pamela Anderson
10. Lindsay Lohan

MSN

1. Ronaldinho
2. Shakira
3. Paris Hilton
4. Britney Spears
5. Harry Potter
6. Eminem
7. Pamela Anderson
8. Hilary Duff
9. Rebelde
10. Angelina Jolie

Google

1. Bebo
2. Myspace
3. World Cup
4. Metacafe
5. Radioblog
6. Wikipedia
7. Video
8. Rebelde
9. Mininova
10. Wiki

My quick takeaways:

1) Old School Celebrity rules: So much for the long tail, it appears that the head of the tail is dominated by mainstream celebrities who are promoted and financed by mainstream (aka old) media. No Lonely Girl here.

2) Web 2.0 is in the driver's seat: Check out Google's list- Myspace, Metacafe, RadioBlog, Wiki (2x). For marketers this is a clear call to action to sell where communities live.

3) Think Global: Bebo, Ronaldinho, Rebelde- after all, it is the world wide web. These stats remind me that US centric thinking can blind us to opportunities outside our borders.

Merry Christmas and may all your searches be bright!

Shopping Brands v. Shopping for Deals

Doing any holiday shopping online this Christmas season? Are you conditioned to shop brands (either brick and mortar retailers or online) or are you shopping for deals? I for one am conditioned to shop brands, but clearly not everyone shopping the web this holiday season is. On Monday, Dec 4th the NY Times reported the "Top 10" Cyber Monday traffic results:

The winners: as measured by unique visitors (growth over 2005 in parens)

1) eBay - 9.5MM (-6%)
2) Amazon.com - 4.6MM (+24%)
3) Walmart.com - 3.4MM (+57%)
4) Dell - 2.5MM (+35%)
5) Target.com - 2.4MM (+8%)
6) Shopzilla - 1.9MM (+42%)
7) BestBuy.com - 1.8MM (+17%)
8) Overstock.com - 1.6MM (-20%)
9) Circuit City - 1.4MM (+18%)
10) MSN Shopping - 0.3MM (+164%)

Surprising to me was to see Shopzilla, a comparison shopping destination acquired last year by EW Scripps, increase uniques by 42% and placing it in the top 10 above Best Buy, Circuit City and MSN. While unique visitor traffic is not a direct reflection of revenue, seeing a comparison shopping destination rank so high among these high profile brands is yet another indication of how Web 2.0 companies are stimulating interest among consumers and influencing online shopping behavior.

The Future Is Calling - Are We Ready?

As we approach year end, it's always intriguing to look ahead and see what business opportunities we can expect to see develop in 2007. At a dinner hosted last night by the Washington Software Alliance (WSA), six panelists from the tech industry-- senior execs from companies such as Sun Microsystems, IBM, Forrester, eccentric, Futurist.com and a former Microsoft Exchange PM now leading a startup, HelpShare-- offered reflections on the year past and predictions for what may lie ahead.

L-R: John Cook, Seattle-PI; Fulup Foll, Sun Microsystems; Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com; Gerrit Huizenga, IBM Linux; TA McCann, Helpshare; Robin Murdoch, Accenture; Ray Wang, Forrester (cropped).

One of the more enlightening exchanges took place, when moderator John Cook, Seattle PI technology reporter, asked each panelist: "If you had $5MM to invest in start-up companies, which market opportunities would you bet to win?", the panelists responded with some very intriguing ideas:

1) Anonymous identity provider - in an online world where privacy has increasingly become a antiquated notion, there is an unmet pain point that needs to be served
2) Multi-player gaming enabled through ad sponsored product placement - let the game experience revolve in and around product placements that resonate with the target demo and encourage users to interact with the product and the community
3) Healthcare record management - again, in the call for privacy, and in an effort to eliminate accidental deaths due to poor record keeping or availability, enable patients to have total control and real time access to their complete healthcare history
4) Housing solutions for the aging US population: provide scalable and affordable housing options for 65 y.o. plus market
5) DNA Mapping products designed to predict future disorders (as identified in DNA code) and pro-actively prescribe health care options to mitigate expected health problems
6) Social Networking that integrates brand advertising - there is a $70BB brand advertising market that is not being effectively addressed by the current crop of social networks
7) Database killer - eliminate databases worldwide and empower ubiquitous access to data through ASP solutions

Conversely, the panelists identified these marketing opportunities as "overhyped" in 2006 and expect consolidation or outright elimination of these businesses:

1) Wireless streaming of TV to mobile phones - given the user experience and alternatives (flat panel, HDTV)
2) Proprietary applications competing with existing standards - eg: SKYPE
3) Open doc format - the power of the MS .doc standard has proven to be far too beneficial to users to be supplanted by open doc
4) AOL
5) Social networks - there are over 100 and many have no legs outside of US market (eg MySpace is non-entity countries like France)
6) Software as service - service is what companies and individuals want when they purchase software
7) User Generated Content - the current "looking the mirror" fascination will wane and it will be evident that consumers vote with their eyeballs and spend the majority of online time consuming professional, hi-quality content

Extra credit - Q: What market should we be looking to take our cues from for the future? A: K_O_R_E_A.